Ask our resident bookie Johnny Vegas.

Red Sox and Mets to meet in the 2007 World Series

2007-05-21T15:33:00.000-07:00

With the second month of the baseball season coming to a close it’s way too early to make any predictions about October. However, being cautiously optimistic isn’t what I’m paid six dollars an hour to do, so let’s take a trip back to 1986 and make some predictions.

As of June 1st 1986 the best record in the American League was 33-15, held by the Boston Red Sox. The best record in the National League was 30-13, held by the N.Y. Mets.

This year, as we approach June, the best record in the American League is 30-13, once again held by the Boston Red Sox. In the National League the Metropolitans are also atop the standing with a 28-15 record.

The numbers are eerily similar. What happened in 1986? Randall Scott designed its first T shirt, the Mets and Sox met in the World Series, and we witnessed the infamous (or famous, depending upon your allegiance) game 6. If you’re not familiar with this game, or even if you are, here’s an amazing reenactment via RBI baseball(and yes, that's Vin Scully announcing):

With the Yankees 10 ½ back, and the biggest legitimate threat to the Mets coming from Atlanta in their own division (I’m assuming Milwaukee's torrent pace will slow), it’s not preposterous to project these two teams into the 2007 World Series. So, if you’re a Boston fan, head to Jordan’s furniture and pick up a new dining room set. If you’re a Mets fan, mortgage the house and bet them to make the series, but not win, because this year Buckner will reside somewhere on your bench.

Red Sox Nation Temporarily Off Suicide Watch

2007-04-24T10:07:00.000-07:00

Well, it’s been brought to my attention that in lieu of the recent Red Sox sweep of the Yankees farm team that I should give them some credit, and update the status of Boston’s suicide watch.

All right, let us put some stuff in perspective here. Yes, it was the first home sweep of the Yanks in over a decade, but let’s add a few caveats:

Starting Pitching: Moose, Pavano, and Wang were on the DL, leaving the venerable Jeff Karstens and Chase Wright to start games 2 and 3 respectively. If we don’t get to the bullpen early on these bean bags we might as well trade Manny and Ortiz straight up for Bellhorn and Millar and try for single season strike out record.

The Yanks scored 17 runs in three games. Who started those three games? Schilling, Beckett, and Daisuke – our 1-2-3. We’re not going to outbash the Yankees, this isn’t the 1998-2003 Sox, it’s the Moneyball Sox, and the Moneyball Sox can’t give up an average of six runs a game.

Bullpen: The Yanks are on pace to obliterate the record for bullpen innings pitched. A 40+ year old Pettite has made two relief appearances thus far, and asking a mediocre-at-best bullpen to throw 5 innings a game is insane. These guys are a) not very good b) already worn out three weeks into April.

History: How many times have the Red Sox gotten off to a hot start only to watch Steinbrenner’s Merry Henchmen waltz past them in August/September? Well, I’m 26 and I’ve seen it happen 23 times, save Morgan’s Magic, 2003, and 1986 (Oh, by the way, did you hear Bill Buckner recently tried to commit suicide by jumping in front of a train…….luckily, it went between his legs)

OK, Now the good, and there’s quite a bit.

Bullpenn: Besides 2003 when Keith Faulk mysteriously owned hitters with a 89 mph fastball and a 82 mph changeup, the Sox haven’t had a good bullpen since Reagan was in office. Their perennial weakness now looks like a strength. I’m leery of anointing this group ‘great’ or even ‘good’ at this point – but the numbers don’t lie – and you can’t trail every game of a series vs. the Yanks and sweep without great relief.

5-9: Before this series watching Lowell, Veritek, Crisp, and Pedrioa bat inspired about as much confidence as watching W. Bush speak. These guys all contributed in the series, and that’s all we need. If they can collectively bat .250, the Sox will be tough to beat. If they can collectively bat .275 and put up 15-20 HR’s a piece, the Sox win the World Series Hands Down.

Backtobacktobacktoback: That was fun to watch, and guess who's about to catch fire just being himself.....yup, Manny.

Papelbon: This is an excerpt from my last Sox post, after the first game of the season:

If Epstein would ever answer my phone calls he’d realize that sending Papelbon to BALCO and having him pitch eight innings a game would almost guarantee a World Series birth, and in interleague play he’d probably be good for 20+ homers.

Is there a more fun pitcher to watch in baseball? This guy is evil. You want to know what people mean when they say “exploding fastball” take peak at Papples untouchable 97/98 mph cheese. Best closer in baseball – maybe best pitcher in baseball – this guy has struck out 13 of the 18 batters he’s faced this year. You put Babe Ruth in the box against him and Veritek wouldn’t hesitate to call 7 straight fastballs.

In Conclusion: For the young fawn who has been campaigning for me to give the Sox some positive ink, and wrote, “the Red Sox are hotter than my dirtiest Epstein fantasy”, take it with a grain of salt – we’ve been here before.

Red Sox Lose Opener, Boston on Suicide Watch

2007-04-02T17:33:00.000-07:00

Curt Schilling has a new change up, and it’s about as elusive as David Ortiz on a skateboard. The Schill on the Hill gave up about five earned in four innings, ruined my fantasy team’s ERA, and had every Bostonian wearing tie wondering if they should just end it right now.

The vaunted offense didn’t inspire too much confidence either. Lugo, the new leadoff, ran out of ways to strike out after the sixth inning. Maybe we’ll have to give Coco another shot it – oh, he went 0 for 3 and is battling Varitek for the most awkward swing the MLB. Looks like The Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youkilis, may have to spend another year in the one slot and further his legacy as the only leadoff man in baseball history to run a 6.8sec forty

(Slow Down Youk)

Maybe I’m being a little harsh. I know we only scored one run, but we were facing Gil Meche, the KC ace, who last year had a sparkling ERA approaching 6.0 and a fastball that almost hits 90 sometimes.

At least we got to hear Remdog’s diatribe on bag lunches, and I could smell the fresh cut grass now that NESN broadcasts in HD.

If Epstein would ever answer my phone calls he’d realize that sending Papelbon to BALCO and having him pitch eight innings a game would almost guarantee a World Series birth, and in interleague play he’d probably be good for 20+ homers.

To end on a brighter note - my seven year old cousin came over while I was watching the game, and as I watched her cruise around the living room there was one thought that kept popping into my head and bringing a huge smile across my face, “she’s never seen the Yankees win the World Series.”

SUPERBOWL

2007-01-25T14:16:00.000-08:00

Johnny,

It's that time of year, so you know the question: Who do I take in the Super Bowl?

Timmy Rock,
Plains Georgia

Well Timmy, there's an old adage in the bookie world, and it goes: Don't ever bet against Bill Belichik and Tom Brady. Brady may not have the gaudy stats of some of the league's other quarterbacks, but in a big game.......What? The patriots lost the AFC championship game? Sorry Timmy, I went to bed after the first half and assumed the patriots wouldn't have one of the worst &^%$? second half collapses in playoff history. Now I know what it's like to be a Yankee fan. Actually, I take that back, the Yankee collapse was WAY worse.

So it looks like the colts are giving seven. You're gonna hear so much analysis of this game that after listening to the incessant "x-factors" and "match up problems" you could end up making your pick on who has the best backup full back.

The bottom line is that Peyton Manning is the quarterback for the Colts and Rex Grossman in the quarterback for the Bears. Grossman has been average at best during these playoffs. Bears fans are just happy the wheels haven't fallen off yet, but they will this weekend. Too many times Grossman looks like a high schooler in a parking lot pick up game, throwing the deep fly route any chance he gets regardless of the coverage. If the colts can fool Grossman into thinking there's single coverage on the outside a few times it'll be pick city, and once Indy has the lead, game over. Their cover 2 is designed for rushing the quarterback and thrives in obvious passing situations.

On the flip side, the bears D is still formidable, but without Tommy Harris and Mike Brown it is no longer dominant. And a dominant D is what is needed to keep the colts from putting points on the board.

Take the Colts to cover the spread and bet your mortgage on it, Remember, I haven't been wrong since the 86' World Series.

JV